INDEPENDENT HOCKEY SCOUTING & INTELLIGENCENORTH AMERICA • INTERNATIONAL
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CADIG PROSPECT VALUE INDEX

Cross-League Player Valuation & NHL Projection.

CADIG's prospect model is designed to compare players developing in very different environments by combining age-adjusted production, league strength, role, scouting traits, transition value, development context and long-term projection.

NCAAWHL / OHL / QMJHLSHLLIIGASLOVAKIALATVIAINTERNATIONAL
MODEL

CADIG pWAR

A prospect-specific projection framework. pWAR is not presented as current NHL WAR; it is a CADIG estimate of future NHL value built from comparable development indicators.

PROJECTED WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT

One common scale across development systems.

pWAR = Production Value + League Translation + Transition Value + Chance Creation + Defensive Value + Role Value + Development Value − Risk
CORE INPUTS
Age-adjusted scoring
League strength
Primary points / EV production
Role & usage
Entries / exits / transition
Shot & chance creation
Defensive impact
Physical translation
Hockey IQ / decision-making
Development risk
2026 PROSPECT VALUE BOARD

Different leagues. One evaluation language.

The examples below show how CADIG can compare elite prospects whose value is created in different ways. Numerical pWAR outputs remain model placeholders until the underlying data model is finalized.

GAVIN MCKENNA
F • NCAA / NORTH AMERICA • ELITE CREATOR
CADIG pWARMODEL
Future ValueELITE
↑ Creation↑ Transition↑ Processing↑ Upside

High-end offensive projection driven by puck skill, manipulation, vision and the ability to create advantages through transition. The model would heavily weight age-adjusted dominance and creation efficiency.

SkatingHigh
Hockey IQElite
TransitionElite
ProjectionTop Line
IVAR STENBERG
F • SHL • SWEDEN • PRO-LEVEL PRODUCTION
CADIG pWARMODEL
Future ValueELITE
↑ Age Adj.↑ SHL Context↑ Creation↑ Translation

A strong pWAR case because production comes against professional competition at a young age. CADIG would emphasize age-versus-league difficulty, role, transition and creation rather than raw points alone.

LeagueSHL
CreationHigh
TranslationHigh
RiskLow/Med
MALTE GUSTAFSSON
LD • SHL / SWEDEN • TWO-WAY DEFENSE
CADIG pWARMODEL
Future ValueHIGH
↑ Mobility↑ Gap Control↑ Pro Context↑ Size

Defense-first projection where pWAR should not over-reward scoring. Value comes from mobility, retrievals, defending, physical translation, professional-league experience and the probability of handling NHL defensive minutes.

DefenseHigh
MobilityHigh
PhysicalHigh
ProjectionTop 4
CROSS-LEAGUE WATCH
LIIGA • SLOVAKIA • LATVIA • CHL
PurposeCOMPARE
OutputCOMMON SCALE
League TranslationAge CurveRoleRisk

The next expansion layer is a 10–15 player board spanning CHL, NCAA, SHL, Liiga, Slovak and Latvian development systems, allowing CADIG to identify comparable value across very different competitive environments.

CHLJunior
NCAACollege
EuropePro/Junior
Intl.U18/U20
LEAGUE TRANSLATION

How CADIG normalizes environment.

The model should reward production differently depending on age, league quality and role, preventing junior production and professional production from being treated as equivalent.

EnvironmentWhat matters mostTranslation question
CHLAge-adjusted dominance, primary creation, roleDoes junior dominance translate against stronger pace and structure?
NCAAAge, usage, even-strength impact, physical maturityHow much value is being created against older competition?
SHLPro role, minutes, production, transitionCan an underage player drive value against professionals?
LiigaPro usage, pace, two-way translationHow does the player handle structured professional hockey?
SlovakiaLeague role, age context, international performanceIs domestic production supported by U18/U20 translation?
LatviaCompetition level, international role, skill translationHow much of the production survives stronger competition?
Model framework only. Final pWAR values should be published only after the underlying statistical, tracking and scouting inputs are standardized and validated.
HISTORICAL MODEL CALIBRATION • 2000–2024

Top 25 outcomes from every draft class.

CADIG expands the historical board beyond the obvious stars. Each class surfaces up to 25 career-WAR outcomes from the supplied dataset, creating a deeper view of draft value, misses, late-round development and the distance between selection order and realized NHL impact.

25draft classes reviewed from 2000 through 2024 Up to 25career outcomes displayed per class 500+historical player-outcome observations across the archive
DATA NOTE Historical NHL draft outcomes and career totals are presented according to Hockey-Reference data used in the CADIG historical comparison set. CADIG ranking, WAR interpretation, movement indicators and scouting conclusions are independent analytical work and are not Hockey-Reference rankings.
2024 DraftTOP 12 AVAILABLE
1
Macklin Celebrini C • SJ
18.7 WAR
=
2
Ivan Demidov RW • MTL
6.1 WAR
↑3
3
Beckett Sennecke RW • ANA
5.2 WAR
=
4
Zeev Buium D • MIN
2.5 WAR
↑8
5
Sam Dickinson D • SJ
2.2 WAR
↑6
6
Igor Cherynshov LW • SJ
2.1 WAR
↑27
7
Zayne Parekh D • CGY
2.0 WAR
↑2
8
Artyom Levshunov D • CHI
1.7 WAR
↓6
9
Marvel Gridin RW • CGY
1.4 WAR
↑19
10
Cole Hutson D • WSH
1.2 WAR
↑33
11
Berkly Catton C • SEA
0.8 WAR
↓3
12
Ilya Protas LW • WSH
0.4 WAR
↑63
The supplied source contains 12 ranked outcomes for 2024; CADIG does not fabricate the missing entries.
2023 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Connor Bedard C • CHI
18.0 WAR
=
2
Leo Carlsson C • ANA
13.7 WAR
=
3
Adam Fantilli C • CBJ
12.8 WAR
=
4
Matvei Michkov RW • PHI
11.1 WAR
↑3
5
William Smith C • SJ
10.1 WAR
↓1
6
Zach Benson LW • BUF
8.7 WAR
↑7
7
Ryan Leonard RW • WSH
4.5 WAR
↑1
8
Jacob Fowler G • MTL
3.5 WAR
↑61
9
Matthew Wood RW • NSH
3.2 WAR
↑6
10
Axel Sandin-Pellikka D • DET
2.7 WAR
↑7
11
Gabe Perreault RW • NYR
2.5 WAR
↑12
12
Tom Willander D • VAN
2.4 WAR
↓1
13
Easton Cowan RW • TOR
2.3 WAR
↑15
14
Calum Ritchie C • COL
2.3 WAR
↑13
15
Emmitt Finnie C • DET
2.1 WAR
↑186
16
Hunter Brzustewicz D • VAN
1.8 WAR
↑59
17
Dalibor Dvorský C • STL
1.4 WAR
↓7
18
Theo Lindstein D • STL
1.3 WAR
↑11
19
Nick Lardis LW • CHI
1.1 WAR
↑48
20
Oliver Moore C • CHI
1.1 WAR
↓1
21
Denver Barkey C • PHI
1.0 WAR
↑74
22
Gavin Brindley C • CBJ
0.9 WAR
↑12
23
Charles-Alexis Legault D • CAR
0.8 WAR
↑116
24
Otto Stenberg C • STL
0.7 WAR
↑4
25
Drew Fortescue D • NYR
0.6 WAR
↑65
2022 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Lane Hutson D • MTL
21.8 WAR
↑61
2
Juraj Slafkovský LW • MTL
16.3 WAR
↓1
3
Logan Cooley C • ARI
15.6 WAR
=
4
Cutter Gauthier LW • PHI
13.3 WAR
↑1
5
Pavel Mintyukov D • ANA
9.2 WAR
↑5
6
Denton Mateychuk D • CBJ
8.5 WAR
↑6
7
Shane Wright C • SEA
8.3 WAR
↓3
8
Šimon Nemec D • NJ
7.8 WAR
↓6
9
Jimmy Snuggerud RW • STL
6.2 WAR
↑14
10
Frank Nazar C • CHI
5.4 WAR
↑3
11
Dennis Hildeby G • TOR
4.9 WAR
↑111
12
Lian Bichsel D • DAL
4.3 WAR
↑6
13
Marco Kasper C • DET
4.3 WAR
↓5
14
Sam Rinzel D • CHI
3.7 WAR
↑11
15
Fraser Minten C • TOR
3.6 WAR
↑23
16
Matthew Savoie C • BUF
3.5 WAR
↓7
17
Jiří Kulich C • BUF
2.4 WAR
↑11
18
Noah Östlund C • BUF
2.3 WAR
↓2
19
Danila Yurov RW • MIN
2.1 WAR
↑5
20
Elias Pettersson D • VAN
2.1 WAR
↑60
21
Kevin Korchinski D • CHI
2.0 WAR
↓14
22
Matthew Poitras C • BOS
1.9 WAR
↑32
23
Noah Laba C • NYR
1.9 WAR
↑88
24
Ryan Greene C • CHI
1.8 WAR
↑33
25
David Jiríček D • CBJ
1.8 WAR
↓19
2021 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Wyatt Johnston C • DAL
29.2 WAR
↑22
2
Owen Power D • BUF
21.7 WAR
↓1
3
Janis Moser D • ARI
21.0 WAR
↑57
4
Dylan Guenther RW • ARI
20.6 WAR
↑5
5
Luke Hughes D • NJ
18.0 WAR
↓1
6
Matthew Beniers C • SEA
17.6 WAR
↓4
7
Matthew Knies LW • TOR
15.2 WAR
↑50
8
Mason McTavish C • ANA
15.0 WAR
↓4
9
Brandt Clarke D • LA
14.3 WAR
↓1
10
Simon Edvinsson D • DET
13.6 WAR
↓4
11
Kent Johnson C • CBJ
11.2 WAR
↓6
12
William Eklund LW • SJ
10.7 WAR
↓5
13
Logan Stankoven C • DAL
9.6 WAR
↑34
14
Ryker Evans D • SEA
9.3 WAR
↑21
15
Jesper Wallstedt G • MIN
9.0 WAR
↑5
16
Jackson Blake RW • CAR
9.0 WAR
↑93
17
Matthew Coronato RW • CGY
8.9 WAR
↓4
18
Olen Zellweger D • ANA
8.6 WAR
↑17
19
Josh Doan RW • ARI
7.9 WAR
↑18
20
Zachary Bolduc C • STL
7.5 WAR
↑3
21
Cole Sillinger C • CBJ
7.2 WAR
↓9
22
Emil Lilleberg D • ARI
5.6 WAR
↑85
23
Mackie Samoskevich RW • FLA
5.4 WAR
↑1
24
Oliver Kapanen C • MTL
3.5 WAR
↑40
25
Logan Mailloux D • MTL
2.8 WAR
↑6
2020 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Tim Stützle LW • OTT
39.3 WAR
↑2
2
Seth Jarvis C • CAR
31.9 WAR
↑11
3
Lucas Raymond LW • DET
30.7 WAR
↑1
4
Jake Sanderson D • OTT
28.9 WAR
↑1
5
Alexis Lafrenière LW • NYR
23.3 WAR
↓4
6
Brock Faber D • LA
22.8 WAR
↑39
7
JJ Peterka RW • BUF
19.6 WAR
↑26
8
Anton Lundell C • FLA
19.6 WAR
↑4
9
Dawson Mercer C • NJ
18.7 WAR
↑9
10
Quinton Byfield C • LA
17.8 WAR
↓8
11
Braden Schneider D • NYR
17.7 WAR
↑8
12
Cole Perfetti C • WPG
15.4 WAR
↓2
13
Dylan Holloway C • EDM
13.5 WAR
↑1
14
Jack Quinn RW • BUF
12.8 WAR
↓6
15
Luke Evangelista RW • NSH
12.3 WAR
↑2
16
Jamie Drysdale D • ANA
11.7 WAR
↓10
17
Marco Rossi C • MIN
11.6 WAR
↓8
18
Jakub Dobeš G • MTL
11.4 WAR
↑118
19
Jake Neighbours LW • STL
11.3 WAR
↑7
20
Tyson Foerster RW • PHI
10.8 WAR
↑3
21
Kaiden Guhle D • MTL
10.5 WAR
↓4
22
Alex Laferriere RW • LA
9.8 WAR
↑61
23
William Cuylle LW • NYR
9.5 WAR
↑37
24
Iaroslav Askarov G • NSH
9.4 WAR
↓13
25
Yegor Chinakhov RW • CBJ
9.0 WAR
↓4
2019 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Jack Hughes C • NJ
44.4 WAR
=
2
Moritz Seider D • DET
37.1 WAR
↑4
3
Matthew’s Boldy LW • MIN
36.8 WAR
↑9
4
Cole Caufield RW • MTL
35.7 WAR
↑11
5
Thomas Harley D • DAL
26.5 WAR
↑13
6
Spencer Knight G • FLA
26.4 WAR
↑7
7
Bowen Byram D • COL
25.7 WAR
↓3
8
Dustin Wolf G • CGY
23.5 WAR
↑206
9
Dylan Cozens C • BUF
22.8 WAR
↓2
10
Trevor Zegras C • ANA
21.9 WAR
↓1
11
Pyotr Kochetkov G • CAR
18.9 WAR
↑25
12
Pavel Dorofeyev LW • VGK
17.9 WAR
↑6
13
Aliaksei Protas C • WSH
17.8 WAR
↑78
14
Kaapo Kakko RW • NYR
17.8 WAR
↓12
15
Jordan Spence D • LA
17.5 WAR
↑80
16
Cameron York D • PHI
17.0 WAR
↓2
17
Jackson LaCombe D • ANA
15.7 WAR
↑22
18
Shane Pinto C • OTT
15.0 WAR
↑14
19
Philip Broberg D • EDM
14.3 WAR
↓11
20
Connor McMichael C • WSH
14.1 WAR
↑5
21
Alex Newhook C • COL
12.8 WAR
↓5
22
Matias Maccelli LW • ARI
12.6 WAR
↑76
23
Alex Vlašič D • CHI
12.5 WAR
↑20
24
Dmitri Voronkov LW • CBJ
11.8 WAR
↑90
25
Simon Holmström RW • NYI
11.8 WAR
↓2
2018 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Quinn Hughes D • VAN
67.4 WAR
↑6
2
Rasmus Dahlin D • BUF
61.6 WAR
↓1
3
Evan Bouchard D • EDM
51.8 WAR
↑7
4
Brady Tkachuk LW • OTT
48.6 WAR
=
5
Andrei Svechnikov RW • CAR
47.4 WAR
↓3
6
Noah Dobson D • NYI
43.0 WAR
↑6
7
K’Andre Miller D • NYR
33.4 WAR
↑15
8
Lukáš Dostál G • ANA
30.4 WAR
↑77
9
Rasmus Sandin D • TOR
23.4 WAR
↑20
10
Kirill Marchenko RW • CBJ
22.2 WAR
↑39
11
Joel Farabee LW • PHI
21.5 WAR
↑3
12
Joel Hofer G • STL
21.1 WAR
↑95
13
Martin Fehérváry D • WSH
21.1 WAR
↑33
14
Sean Durzi D • LA
19.9 WAR
↑38
15
Yegor Sharangovich C • NJ
19.6 WAR
↑126
16
Alexander Romanov D • MTL
18.3 WAR
↑22
17
Mattias Samuelsson D • BUF
17.2 WAR
↑15
18
Jesperi Kotkaniemi C • MTL
16.9 WAR
↓15
19
Ryan McLeod C • EDM
15.6 WAR
↑21
20
Samuel Ersson G • PHI
14.5 WAR
↑123
21
Kevin Bahl D • ARI
13.1 WAR
↑34
22
Adam Boqvist D • CHI
12.6 WAR
↓14
23
Justus Annunen G • COL
12.1 WAR
↑41
24
Nils Lundqvist D • NYR
11.8 WAR
↑4
25
Barrett Hayton C • ARI
11.1 WAR
↓20
2017 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Cale Makar D • COL
81.3 WAR
↑3
2
Jason Robertson LW • DAL
59.1 WAR
↑37
3
Miro Heiskanen D • DAL
58.2 WAR
=
4
Jake Oettinger G • DAL
54.8 WAR
↑22
5
Elias Pettersson C • VAN
53.1 WAR
=
6
Nico Hischier C • NJ
51.4 WAR
↓5
7
Jeremy Swayman G • BOS
45.8 WAR
↑104
8
Martin Nečas C • CAR
45.5 WAR
↑4
9
Nick Suzuki C • VGK
45.2 WAR
↑4
10
Robert Thomas C • STL
44.0 WAR
↑10
11
Stuart Skinner G • EDM
36.3 WAR
↑67
12
Drake Batherson C • OTT
34.3 WAR
↑109
13
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G • BUF
30.9 WAR
↑41
14
Michael Anderson D • LA
27.4 WAR
↑89
15
Gabriel Vilardi C • LA
26.6 WAR
↓4
16
Morgan Geekie C • CAR
23.7 WAR
↑51
17
Owen Tippett RW • FLA
22.5 WAR
↓7
18
Casey Mittelstadt C • BUF
21.7 WAR
↓10
19
Joshua Norris C • SJ
20.8 WAR
=
20
Nicolas Hague D • VGK
19.3 WAR
↑14
21
Henri Jokiharju D • CHI
19.0 WAR
↑8
22
Dylan Samberg D • WPG
17.8 WAR
↑21
23
Mario Ferraro D • SJ
17.2 WAR
↑26
24
Eeli Tolvanen RW • NSH
16.7 WAR
↑6
25
Daniil Tarasov G • CBJ
16.0 WAR
↑61
2016 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Auston Matthews C • TOR
102.0 WAR
=
2
Matthew Tkachuk LW • CGY
76.3 WAR
↑4
3
Adam Fox D • CGY
67.2 WAR
↑63
4
Charles McAvoy D • BOS
66.4 WAR
↑10
5
Alex DeBrincat RW • CHI
66.4 WAR
↑34
6
Clayton Keller C • ARI
59.2 WAR
↑1
7
Mikhail Sergachev D • MTL
56.2 WAR
↑2
8
Jakob Chychrun D • ARI
55.6 WAR
↑8
9
Jesper Bratt W • NJ
51.0 WAR
↑153
10
Patrik Laine RW • WPG
46.7 WAR
↓8
11
Tage Thompson C • STL
44.3 WAR
↑15
12
Filip Gustavsson G • PIT
43.8 WAR
↑43
13
Pierre-Luc Dubois LW • CBJ
42.9 WAR
↓10
14
Filip Hronek D • DET
41.0 WAR
↑39
15
Brandon Hagel LW • BUF
40.5 WAR
↑144
16
Jordan Kyrou C • STL
39.0 WAR
↑19
17
Carter Hart G • PHI
38.8 WAR
↑31
18
Samuel Girard D • NSH
37.4 WAR
↑29
19
Ryan Lindgren D • BOS
28.0 WAR
↑30
20
Joseph Woll G • TOR
24.0 WAR
↑42
21
Connor Ingram G • TB
22.3 WAR
↑67
22
Dante Fabbro D • NSH
21.0 WAR
↓5
23
Ross Colton C • TB
16.7 WAR
↑95
24
Logan Stanley D • WPG
13.8 WAR
↓6
25
Brett Howden C • TB
11.5 WAR
↑2
2015 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Connor McDavid C • EDM
141.0 WAR
=
2
Mikko Rantanen RW • COL
87.5 WAR
↑8
3
Mitchell Marner C • TOR
85.5 WAR
↑1
4
Sebastian Aho RW • CAR
84.3 WAR
↑31
5
Jack Eichel C • BUF
76.6 WAR
↓3
6
Kyle Connor LW • WPG
75.1 WAR
↑11
7
Zach Werenski D • CBJ
74.0 WAR
↑1
8
Noah Hanifin D • CAR
59.7 WAR
↓3
9
Kirill Kaprizov LW • MIN
58.4 WAR
↑126
10
Travis Konecny C • PHI
55.4 WAR
↑14
11
Ivan Provorov D • PHI
54.0 WAR
↓4
12
Vince Dunn D • STL
53.9 WAR
↑44
13
Mathew Barzal C • NYI
51.2 WAR
↑3
14
Thomas Chabot D • OTT
50.3 WAR
↑4
15
Timo Meier RW • SJ
50.3 WAR
↓6
16
Roope Hintz LW • DAL
50.1 WAR
↑35
17
Mackenzie Blackwood G • NJ
49.4 WAR
↑25
18
Brock Boeser RW • VAN
49.3 WAR
↑5
19
Rasmus Andersson D • CGY
45.6 WAR
↑34
20
Karel Vejmelka G • NSH
41.9 WAR
↑125
21
Dylan Strome C • ARI
41.9 WAR
↓18
22
Jake DeBrusk LW • BOS
37.9 WAR
↓8
23
Brandon Carlo D • BOS
37.9 WAR
↑14
24
Anthony Cirelli C • TB
36.5 WAR
↑48
25
Pavel Zacha C • NJ
36.1 WAR
↓19
2014 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Leon Draisaitl C • EDM
123.4 WAR
↑2
2
David Pastrňák RW • BOS
117.0 WAR
↑23
3
Brayden Point C • TB
79.2 WAR
↑76
4
William Nylander C/RW • TOR
75.4 WAR
↑4
5
Aaron Ekblad D • FLA
74.8 WAR
↓4
6
Sam Reinhart C • BUF
73.8 WAR
↓4
7
Igor Shesterkin G • NYR
69.2 WAR
↑111
8
Nikolaj Ehlers LW • WPG
68.2 WAR
↑1
9
Dylan Larkin C • DET
64.6 WAR
↑6
10
Ilya Sorokin G • NYI
64.5 WAR
↑68
11
Devon Toews D • NYI
61.1 WAR
↑97
12
Kevin Fiala LW • NSH
55.4 WAR
↓1
13
Brandon Montour D • ANA
53.9 WAR
↑42
14
Adrian Kempe LW • LA
52.7 WAR
↑15
15
Viktor Arvidsson LW • NSH
51.1 WAR
↑97
16
Alex Tuch RW • MIN
48.7 WAR
↑2
17
Thatcher Demko G • VAN
48.4 WAR
↑19
18
Nick Schmaltz C • CHI
47.1 WAR
↑2
19
Gustav Forsling D • VAN
46.9 WAR
↑107
20
Jared McCann C • VAN
46.7 WAR
↑4
21
Elvis Merzļikins • CBJ
44.2 WAR
↑55
22
Travis Sanheim D • PHI
41.9 WAR
↓5
23
Anthony DeAngelo D • TB
38.3 WAR
↓4
24
Samuel Bennett C • CGY
37.0 WAR
↓20
25
Ivan Barbashev C/LW • STL
35.6 WAR
↑8
2013 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Nathan MacKinnon C • COL
132.3 WAR
=
2
Juuse Saros G • NSH
90.2 WAR
↑97
3
Aleksander Barkov C • FLA
86.2 WAR
↓1
4
Jake Guentzel C • PIT
76.3 WAR
↑73
5
Seth Jones D • NSH
73.0 WAR
↓1
6
Josh Morrissey D • WPG
72.4 WAR
↑7
7
Shea Theodore D • ANA
68.7 WAR
↑19
8
Sean Monahan C • CGY
65.4 WAR
↓2
9
Bo Horvat C • VAN
64.4 WAR
=
10
Elias Lindholm C • CAR
63.4 WAR
↓5
11
Darnell Nurse D • EDM
60.3 WAR
↓4
12
Tristan Jarry G • EDM
54.5 WAR
↑32
13
Pavel Buchnevich LW • NYR
51.9 WAR
↑62
14
Brett Pesce D • CAR
51.2 WAR
↑52
15
MacKenzie Weegar D • FLA
50.2 WAR
↑191
16
Ryan Pulock D • NYI
48.9 WAR
↓1
17
Rasmus Ristolainen D • BUF
48.9 WAR
↓9
18
Max Domi C/LW • PHX
42.8 WAR
↓6
19
Nikita Zadorov D • BUF
40.9 WAR
↓3
20
André Burakovsky LW • WSH
40.8 WAR
↑3
21
Oliver Bjorkstrand RW • CBJ
40.1 WAR
↑68
22
Anthony Mantha RW • DET
39.9 WAR
↓2
23
Carter Verhaeghe C • TOR
39.6 WAR
↑59
24
Valeri Nichushkin LW • DAL
36.9 WAR
↓14
25
Anthony Duclair LW • NYR
36.7 WAR
↑55
2012 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Connor Hellebuyck G • WPG
124.9 WAR
↑129
2
Andrei Vasilevskiy G • TB
119.8 WAR
↑17
3
Frederik Andersen G • ANA
97.5 WAR
↑84
4
Filip Forsberg C • WSH
89.2 WAR
↑7
5
Morgan Rielly D • TOR
75.3 WAR
=
6
Hampus Lindholm D • ANA
71.1 WAR
=
7
Jaccob Slavin D • CAR
69.5 WAR
↑113
8
Shayne Gostisbehere D • PHI
67.0 WAR
↑70
9
Linus Ullmark G • BUF
65.5 WAR
↑154
10
Jacob Trouba D • WPG
63.8 WAR
↓1
11
Tomáš Hertl C • SJ
62.1 WAR
↑6
12
Esa Lindell D • DAL
61.2 WAR
↑62
13
Colton Parayko D • STL
61.0 WAR
↑73
14
Teuvo Teräväinen LW • CHI
55.1 WAR
↑4
15
Brady Skjei D • NYR
54.6 WAR
↑13
16
Damon Severson D • NJ
53.1 WAR
↑44
17
Michael Matheson D • FLA
48.8 WAR
↑6
18
Jonas Korpisalo G • CBJ
48.3 WAR
↑44
19
Mathew Dumba D • MIN
48.1 WAR
↓12
20
Matt Murray G • PIT
47.2 WAR
↑63
21
Olli Määttä D • PIT
45.2 WAR
↑1
22
Tom Wilson RW • WSH
44.7 WAR
↓6
23
Cody Ceci D • OTT
43.4 WAR
↓8
24
Matthew Grzelcyk D • BOS
41.6 WAR
↑61
25
Adam Pelech D • NYI
40.2 WAR
↑40
2011 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Nikita Kucherov LW • TB
132.7 WAR
↑57
2
John Gibson G • ANA
101.3 WAR
↑37
3
Mark Scheifele C • WPG
100.9 WAR
↑4
4
Dougie Hamilton D • BOS
96.8 WAR
↑5
5
Mika Zibanejad C • OTT
87.0 WAR
↑1
6
Jonathan Huberdeau C • FLA
80.7 WAR
↓3
7
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C • EDM
78.4 WAR
↓6
8
John Gaudreau LW • CGY
77.7 WAR
↑96
9
J.T. Miller C • NYR
77.7 WAR
↑7
10
Gabriel Landeskog LW • COL
69.4 WAR
↓8
11
Jonas Brodin D • MIN
62.9 WAR
↓1
12
Vincent Trocheck C • FLA
60.9 WAR
↑52
13
Jordan Binnington G • STL
60.8 WAR
↑75
14
Adam Larsson D • NJ
60.8 WAR
↓11
15
Rickard Rakell RW • ANA
59.5 WAR
↑15
16
Brandon Saad LW • CHI
58.1 WAR
↑27
17
Sean Couturier C • PHI
55.9 WAR
↓9
18
Ondřej Palát LW • TB
53.8 WAR
↑190
19
William Karlsson C • ANA
47.8 WAR
↑34
20
Josh Manson D • ANA
44.2 WAR
↑140
21
Ryan Strome C • NYI
43.1 WAR
↓16
22
Dylan DeMelo D • SJ
42.7 WAR
↑157
23
Boone Jenner C • CBJ
39.8 WAR
↑14
24
Jean-Gabriel Pageau C • OTT
37.3 WAR
↑72
25
Joel Edmundson D • STL
36.8 WAR
↑21
2010 DraftTOP 24 AVAILABLE
1
Tyler Seguin C • BOS
100.0 WAR
↑1
2
Taylor Hall C • EDM
86.8 WAR
↓1
3
Justin Faulk D • CAR
85.5 WAR
↑34
4
Vladimir Tarasenko RW • STL
85.2 WAR
↑12
5
Mark Stone RW • OTT
81.7 WAR
↑173
6
Cam Fowler D • ANA
81.7 WAR
↑6
7
Jeff Skinner C • CAR
80.8 WAR
=
8
Tyler Toffoli C • LA
74.2 WAR
↑39
9
Brock Nelson C • NYI
73.6 WAR
↑21
10
John Klingberg D • DAL
66.8 WAR
↑121
11
Petr Mrázek G • DET
66.4 WAR
↑130
13
Jaden Schwartz C • STL
59.3 WAR
↑1
14
Mikael Granlund C • MIN
57.1 WAR
↓5
15
Evgeny Kuznetsov C • WSH
56.9 WAR
↑11
16
Zach Hyman C • FLA
56.0 WAR
↑107
17
Ryan Johansen C • CBJ
56.0 WAR
↓13
18
Brendan Gallagher RW • MTL
55.6 WAR
↑129
19
Nino Niederreiter RW • NYI
55.4 WAR
↓14
20
Bryan Rust RW • PIT
53.2 WAR
↑60
21
Charlie Coyle C/RW • SJ
51.2 WAR
↑7
22
Jason Zucker LW • MIN
50.8 WAR
↑37
23
Kevin Hayes RW • CHI
42.9 WAR
↑1
24
Radko Gudas D • TB
42.8 WAR
↑42
25
Scott WedgewoodG • NJ
34.8 WAR
↑59
The supplied source contains 24 ranked outcomes for 2010; CADIG does not fabricate the missing entries.
2009 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Victor Hedman D • TB
134.7 WAR
↑1
2
John Tavares C • NYI
134.6 WAR
↓1
3
Matt Duchene C • COL
98.0 WAR
=
4
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D • PHX
91.3 WAR
↑2
5
Ryan O’Reilly C • COL
88.0 WAR
↑28
6
Darcy Kuemper G • MIN
86.9 WAR
↑155
7
Mattias Ekholm D • NSH
84.3 WAR
↑95
8
Nazem Kadri C • TOR
77.6 WAR
↓1
9
Chris Kreider C • NYR
77.5 WAR
↑10
10
Tyson Barrie D • COL
71.9 WAR
↑54
11
Brayden Schenn C • LA
71.0 WAR
↓6
12
Robin Lehner G • OTT
70.5 WAR
↑34
13
Evander Kane LW • ATL
70.4 WAR
↓9
14
Dmitry Orlov D • WSH
67.6 WAR
↑41
15
Nick Leddy D • MIN
66.3 WAR
↑1
16
Anders Lee C • NYI
65.2 WAR
↑136
17
Reilly Smith RW • DAL
62.3 WAR
↑52
18
Kyle Palmieri RW • ANA
62.2 WAR
↑8
19
Ryan Ellis D • NSH
57.4 WAR
↓8
20
Tomáš Tatar C • DET
55.3 WAR
↑40
21
Mike Hoffman C/LW • OTT
51.8 WAR
↑109
22
Craig Smith C • NSH
51.5 WAR
↑76
23
Brayden McNabb D • BUF
50.8 WAR
↑43
24
Marcus Johansson C/W • WSH
50.4 WAR
=
25
Dmitry Kulikov D • FLA
46.7 WAR
↓10
2008 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Steven Stamkos C • TB
154.3 WAR
=
2
Drew Doughty D • LA
140.0 WAR
=
3
Erik Karlsson D • OTT
138.5 WAR
↑12
4
Roman Josi D • NSH
128.6 WAR
↑34
5
John Carlson D • WSH
128.0 WAR
↑22
6
Alex Pietrangelo D • STL
118.2 WAR
↓2
7
Jacob Markström G • FLA
91.9 WAR
↑24
8
Braden Holtby G • WSH
91.4 WAR
↑85
9
Jared Spurgeon D • NYI
90.4 WAR
↑147
10
Jordan Eberle C • EDM
83.5 WAR
↑12
11
Jake Allen G • STL
79.1 WAR
↑23
12
Tyler Myers D • BUF
75.3 WAR
=
13
T.J. Brodie D • CGY
65.7 WAR
↑101
14
Adam Henrique C • NJ
61.5 WAR
↑68
15
Cam Atkinson RW • CBJ
56.0 WAR
↑142
16
Derek Stepan C • NYR
56.0 WAR
↑35
17
Gustav Nyquist RW • DET
52.9 WAR
↑104
18
Josh Bailey C • NYI
50.1 WAR
↓9
19
Michael Del Zotto D • NYR
48.8 WAR
↑1
20
Justin Schultz D • ANA
48.8 WAR
↑23
21
Travis Hamonic D • NYI
46.5 WAR
↑32
22
Zach Bogosian D • ATL
44.9 WAR
↓19
23
Jason Demers D • SJ
44.0 WAR
↑163
24
Jake Gardiner D • ANA
43.7 WAR
↓7
25
Luke Schenn D • TOR
40.3 WAR
↓20
2007 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Patrick Kane RW • CHI
154.2 WAR
=
2
Jamie Benn LW • DAL
115.4 WAR
↑127
3
Ryan McDonagh D • MTL
97.6 WAR
↑9
4
David Perron LW • STL
86.1 WAR
↑22
5
Max Pacioretty LW • MTL
85.5 WAR
↑17
6
P.K. Subban D • MTL
83.3 WAR
↑37
7
Logan Couture C • SJ
81.0 WAR
↑2
8
Kevin Shattenkirk D • COL
80.6 WAR
↑6
9
Jakub Voráček RW • CBJ
76.4 WAR
↓2
10
James van Riemsdyk LW • PHI
75.6 WAR
↓8
11
Alec Martinez D • LA
65.5 WAR
↑84
12
Jake Muzzin D • PIT
58.1 WAR
↑129
13
Mikael Backlund C • CGY
57.3 WAR
↑11
14
Alex Killorn C • TB
56.2 WAR
↑63
15
Wayne Simmonds RW • LA
55.2 WAR
↑46
16
Ian Cole D • STL
54.2 WAR
↑2
17
Sam Gagner C • EDM
45.7 WAR
↓11
18
Kyle Turris C • OTT
42.0 WAR
↓15
19
Justin Braun D • SJ
42.0 WAR
↑183
20
Lars Eller C • STL
35.2 WAR
↓7
21
Evgenii Dadonov RW • FLA
34.6 WAR
↑50
22
Nick Bonino C • SJ
32.8 WAR
↑151
23
Carl Gunarsson D • TOR
32.7 WAR
↑171
24
Karl Alzner D • WSH
32.1 WAR
↓19
25
Carl Hagelin LW • NYR
30.3 WAR
↑143
2006 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Brad Marchand LW • BOS
131.8 WAR
↑70
2
Claude Giroux RW • PHI
119.4 WAR
↑20
3
Semyon Varlamov G • WSH
118.1 WAR
↑20
4
Jonathan Toews C • CHI
105.0 WAR
↓1
5
Phil Kessel RW • BOS
105.0 WAR
↑1
6
Nicklas Bäckström C • WSH
104.9 WAR
↓1
7
James Reimer G • TOR
90.4 WAR
↑92
8
Steve Mason G • CBJ
77.8 WAR
↑61
9
Jordan Staal C • PIT
73.3 WAR
↓7
10
Jonathan Bernier G • LA
68.4 WAR
↑1
11
Erik Johnson D • STL
64.4 WAR
↓10
12
Jeff Petry D • EDM
60.9 WAR
↑33
13
Milan Lučić LW • BOS
60.8 WAR
↑37
14
Nick Foligno C • OTT
57.9 WAR
↑14
15
Kyle Okposo RW • NYI
57.4 WAR
↓6
16
Derick Brassard C • CBJ
54.4 WAR
↓10
17
Bryan Little RW • ATL
52.6 WAR
↓5
18
Michal Neuvirth G • WSH
39.3 WAR
↑16
19
Artem Anisimov C • NYR
38.9 WAR
↑35
20
Mathieu Perreault C • WSH
37.2 WAR
↑157
21
Patrik Berglund C • STL
36.5 WAR
↑4
22
Michael Frolík LW • FLA
36.2 WAR
↓12
23
Chris Stewart RW • COL
35.5 WAR
↓5
24
Michael Grabner RW • VAN
34.8 WAR
↓10
25
Andrew MacDonald D • NYI
31.3 WAR
↑135
2005 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Sidney Crosby C • PIT
207.6 WAR
=
2
Anže Kopitar C • LA
142.4 WAR
↑9
3
Carey Price G • MTL
136.8 WAR
↑2
4
Kris Letang D • PIT
131.3 WAR
↑58
5
Jonathan Quick G • LA
131.0 WAR
↑67
6
Tuukka Rask G • TOR
107.1 WAR
↑15
7
Keith Yandle D • PHX
90.3 WAR
↑98
8
Paul Stastny C • COL
84.7 WAR
↑36
9
Marc-Édouard Vlasic D • SJ
84.6 WAR
↑26
10
T.J. Oshie C • STL
79.0 WAR
↑14
11
Ben Bishop G • STL
76.4 WAR
↑74
12
Matt Niskanen D • DAL
69.8 WAR
↑16
13
James Neal LW • DAL
67.6 WAR
↑20
14
Patric Hörnqvist RW • NSH
64.9 WAR
↑216
15
Bobby Ryan C • ANA
64.7 WAR
↓13
16
Ondřej Pavelec G • ATL
60.9 WAR
↑25
17
Jack Johnson D • CAR
58.7 WAR
↓14
18
Marc Staal D • NYR
56.6 WAR
↓6
19
Anton Strålman D • TOR
56.5 WAR
↑197
20
Kris Russell D • CBJ
49.1 WAR
↑47
21
Niklas Hjalmarsson D • CHI
44.8 WAR
↑87
22
Andrew Cogliano C • EDM
40.9 WAR
↑3
23
Cody Franson D • NSH
37.0 WAR
↑56
24
Benoït Pouliot LW • MIN
30.9 WAR
↓20
25
Devin Setoguchi RW • SJ
29.2 WAR
↓17
2004 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Alex Ovechkin LW • WSH
220.7 WAR
=
2
Evgeni Malkin C • PIT
161.9 WAR
=
3
Pekka Rinne G • NSH
123.7 WAR
↑255
4
Blake Wheeler RW • PHX
100.0 WAR
↑1
5
Devan Dubnyk G • EDM
93.8 WAR
↑9
6
Alex Goligoski D • PIT
85.5 WAR
↑55
7
Mike Green D • WSH
84.8 WAR
↑22
8
David Krejčí C • BOS
84.0 WAR
↑55
9
Alexander Edler D • VAN
79.3 WAR
↑82
10
Cory Schneider G • VAN
74.9 WAR
↑16
11
Mark Streit D • MTL
67.3 WAR
↑251
12
Andrew Ladd LW • CAR
59.3 WAR
↓8
13
Thomas Greiss G • NYI
59.2 WAR
↑81
14
Travis Zajac C • NJ
52.4 WAR
↑6
15
Andrej Sekera D • BUF
52.0 WAR
↑56
16
Johan Franzén LW • DET
45.8 WAR
↑81
17
Anton Khudobin G • MIN
44.8 WAR
↑189
18
Drew Stafford RW • BUF
43.6 WAR
↓5
19
Brandon Dubinsky C • NYR
42.8 WAR
↑41
20
Alexander Radulov RW • NSH
41.8 WAR
↓5
21
Andrej Meszároš D • OTT
41.7 WAR
↑2
22
Ryan Callahan RW • NYR
41.3 WAR
↑105
23
Kris Versteeg RW • CHI
37.9 WAR
↑111
24
Troy Brouwer RW • CHI
34.8 WAR
↑190
25
Roman Polák D • STL
34.2 WAR
↑155
2003 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Marc-André Fleury G • PIT
182.9 WAR
=
2
Brent Burns RW • MIN
163.2 WAR
↑18
3
Ryan Suter D • NSH
132.2 WAR
↑4
4
Joe Pavelski C • SJ
130.1 WAR
↑201
5
Patrice Bergeron C • BOS
125.5 WAR
↑40
6
Shea Weber D • NSH
118.9 WAR
↑43
7
Eric Staal C • CAR
115.2 WAR
↓5
8
Corey Perry RW • ANA
115.2 WAR
↑20
9
Zach Parise LW • NJ
108.2 WAR
↑8
10
Ryan Getzlaf C • ANA
106.5 WAR
↑9
11
Jaroslav Halák G • MTL
103.3 WAR
↑260
12
Jeff Carter C • PHI
101.2 WAR
↓1
13
Thomas Vanek LW • BUF
95.9 WAR
↓8
14
Jimmy Howard G • DET
90.4 WAR
↑50
15
Corey Crawford G • CHI
90.0 WAR
↑37
16
Brent Seabrook D • CHI
88.5 WAR
↓2
17
Dion Phaneuf D • CGY
86.6 WAR
↓8
18
Dustin Byfuglien D • CHI
85.6 WAR
↑227
19
Brian Elliott G • OTT
80.7 WAR
↑272
20
Dustin Brown RW • LA
72.8 WAR
↓7
21
David Backes C • STL
64.4 WAR
↑41
22
Loui Eriksson LW • DAL
64.0 WAR
↑11
23
Ryan Kesler C • VAN
59.1 WAR
=
24
Matt Carle D • SJ
54.2 WAR
↑23
25
Toby Enström D • ATL
50.9 WAR
↑214
2002 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Duncan Keith D • CHI
117.0 WAR
↑53
2
Kari Lehtonen G • ATL
116.0 WAR
=
3
Cam Ward G • CAR
113.8 WAR
↑22
4
Rick Nash LW • CBJ
102.6 WAR
↓3
5
Jay Bouwmeester D • FLA
83.0 WAR
↓2
6
Dennis Wideman D • BUF
66.3 WAR
↑235
7
Alexander Semin LW • WSH
65.5 WAR
↑6
8
Alex Steen C • TOR
64.7 WAR
↑16
9
Trevor Daley D • DAL
62.3 WAR
↑34
10
Johnny Boychuk D • COL
49.0 WAR
↑51
11
Jiří Hudler C • DET
47.7 WAR
↑47
12
Valtteri Filppula C • DET
47.7 WAR
↑83
13
Joni Pitkänen D • PHI
47.4 WAR
↓9
14
Joffrey Lupul LW • ANA
45.5 WAR
↓7
15
James Wisniewski D • CHI
44.8 WAR
↑141
16
Frans Nielsen C • NYI
43.3 WAR
↑71
17
Tom Gilbert D • COL
40.0 WAR
↑112
18
Ryan Whitney D • PIT
39.3 WAR
↓13
19
Pierre-Marc Bouchard C • MIN
36.0 WAR
↓11
20
Curtis McElhinney G • CGY
35.2 WAR
↑156
21
Ian White D • TOR
35.2 WAR
↑170
22
Jarret Stoll C • EDM
34.1 WAR
↑14
23
Matt Stajan C • TOR
33.6 WAR
↑34
24
Keith Ballard D • BUF
33.0 WAR
↓13
25
Chris Higgins LW • MTL
32.7 WAR
↓11
2001 DraftTOP 25 OUTCOMES
1
Craig Anderson G • CHI
130.6 WAR
↑72
2
Mike Smith G • DAL
116.9 WAR
↑159
3
Jason Spezza C • OTT
109.5 WAR
↓1
4
Ilya Kovalchuk LW • ATL
103.4 WAR
↓3
5
Jason Pominville RW • BUF
79.5 WAR
↑50
6
Dan Hamhuis D • NSH
74.5 WAR
↑6
7
Mike Cammalleri C/W • LA
72.3 WAR
↑42
8
Patrick Sharp LW • PHI
71.1 WAR
↑87
9
Marek Židlický D • NYR
70.7 WAR
↑167
10
Mikko Koivu C • MIN
70.3 WAR
↓4
11
Christian Ehrhoff D • SJ
67.7 WAR
↑95
12
Tomáš Plekanec LW • MTL
64.3 WAR
↑59
13
Jussi Jokinen C • DAL
57.2 WAR
↑179
14
Kevin Bieksa D • VAN
55.3 WAR
↑137
15
Aleš Hemský RW • EDM
54.6 WAR
↓2
16
Derek Roy C • BUF
53.3 WAR
↑16
17
Peter Budaj G • COL
50.6 WAR
↑46
18
Fedor Tyutin D • NYR
49.2 WAR
↑22
19
Dennis Seidenberg D • PHI
49.1 WAR
↑153
20
Cristobal Huet G • LA
48.2 WAR
↑194
21
Johnny Oduya D • WSH
44.8 WAR
↑200
22
Ray Emery G • OTT
42.3 WAR
↑77
23
Martin Gerber G • ANA
41.7 WAR
↑209
24
Stephen Weiss C • FLA
40.0 WAR
↓20
25
R.J. Umberger C • VAN
36.4 WAR
↓9
2026 NHL DRAFT • TOP 15

The current cohort enters the model.

The 2026 top 15 create the forward-looking side of the framework: draft slot, league environment, role, age and scouting traits can be compared with the historical WAR archive above. This is where CADIG pWAR becomes a projection tool rather than a retrospective leaderboard.

1
Gavin McKennaLW
Toronto Maple Leafs
NCAA / Penn State
2
Ivar StenbergLW
San Jose Sharks
SHL / Frölunda
3
Caleb MalhotraC
Vancouver Canucks
NCAA / Boston University
4
Daxon RudolphD
Buffalo Sabres
NCAA / Denver
5
Alberts SmitsD
New York Rangers
Liiga / Jukurit
6
Carson CarelsD
Calgary Flames
NCAA / North Dakota
7
Chase ReidD
Seattle Kraken
NCAA / Michigan State
8
Viggo BjorckC
Winnipeg Jets
SHL / Djurgården
9
Keaton VerhoeffD
San Jose Sharks
NCAA / North Dakota
10
Wyatt CullenLW
Nashville Predators
NCAA / Minnesota
11
Tynan LawrenceC
St. Louis Blues
NCAA / Boston University
12
Alexander CommandC
New Jersey Devils
SHL / Örebro
13
Malte GustafssonD
New York Islanders
SHL / HV71
14
Oscar HemmingLW
Columbus Blue Jackets
NCAA / Boston College
15
Nikita KlepovRW
Anaheim Ducks
OHL / Saginaw
Draft Slot vs. OutcomeHistorical classes show how often future value diverges from original selection order.
League TranslationNCAA, SHL, Liiga and CHL production are normalized rather than treated as equivalent environments.
Future pWARCurrent prospects remain projections until NHL performance supplies realized WAR outcomes.
CADIG PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

From evaluation to development projection.

See how CADIG combines scouting, league context, development velocity, historical outcomes and pWAR/PVI into one player intelligence framework.

VIEW THE CADIG MODEL →
PREMIUM PROSPECT GUIDE

See the full CADIG scouting-report framework.

Overall rankings, verified statistics, CADIG grades, strengths, development priorities, potential ratings and organizational fit.

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HOW CADIG THINKS
Scouting, development context and hockey intelligence.
VIEW METHODOLOGY →